不确定度评定方法在汽车事故再现中的应用

不确定度评定方法在汽车事故再现中的应用
邓海英 莫耀祖 蒋淑霞 韩志刚中南林业科技大学工业学院,湖南长沙410004摘　要:介绍了不确定度理论及其评定方法，结合车辆碰撞事故的具体特点，给出了基于能量守恒的车速计算表达式．通过选择适当的输入参数作为不确定因子，分别计算各分量等效速度标准不确定度．考虑不确定度累积和传播，得到车速输出结果的合成标准不确定度和展伸不确定度，以此检验事故再现结果的准确程度．通过具体事故案例的分析计算和计算机检验，验证该方法的适用性．[著者文摘]

关键词:交通工程 不确定度评定 车辆碰撞 事故再现 能量守恒
分类号:　U491.31[免标]文献标识码：A文章编号：1000-2502（2006）04-0096-05栏目信息：交通运输
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Application of the Uncertainty Evaluation Algorithm to Automobile Accident RecurrenceDENG Hai-ying, MO Yao-zu, JIANG shu-xia, HAN Zhi-gang School of Industry Technology, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, Hunan, ChinaAbstract:This paper introduces the uncertainty theory and its evaluation algorithm, and puts forward the vehicle-velocity calculating formula based on energy conservation and the characteristics in vehicle-impacts. The standard uncertainty of each equivalent velocity is respectively evaluated by selecting a suitable factor in a vehicle-impact. Taking the accumulation and spreading of the uncertainties into consideration, the paper obtains the results of combined standard uncertainty and stretch uncertainty of the vehicle-velocity. They can be used to check the credibility of the accident reconstruction. The practicability of the method is proved through analysis- calculating and computer testing of a specific example.[著者文摘]

Key words:traffic engineering; uncertainty evaluation ; vehicle impact ; accident recurrence ; energy conservation